We've seen this playbook before, Gen. Keane says, tell me about this news today
05-10-2026
The phrase refers to commentary by retired U.S. Army General Jack Keane (frequent military analyst on networks like Fox News) discussing recurring patterns in major geopolitical and national security conflictsmost notably concerning developments involving Iran and its regional proxies, Russian strategy in Ukraine, or Chinese posturing around Taiwan.
When Gen. Keane uses the phrase “we’ve seen this playbook before,” his central argument typically revolves around these points:
De-escalation vs. Deterrence: He argues that adversaries follow an established pattern of escalation, brinkmanship, and temporary pauses. In his view, when Western or allied responses prioritize cautious diplomatic de-escalation over decisive deterrence, adversaries use the lull to regroup, replenish capabilities, and advance their objectives incrementally.
Proxy Warfare Strategy: Regarding Middle Eastern tensions, Keane frequently warns that adversaries rely on layered proxy networks to maintain plausible deniability, probe defense postures, and test red lines without committing to a full-scale direct confrontation.
Repetition of Past Miscalculations: By calling it a “playbook,” he points out that telegraphing limits, setting unenforced red lines, or offering diplomatic off-ramps without leverage mirrors past miscalculationsleading to predictable outcomes rather than lasting stability.
Depending on the exact segment aired today, his analysis focuses on urging policymakers to re-establish a credible military threat and enforce firm deterrence rather than falling back into familiar, predictable diplomatic cycles.