Florida poll: Republicans lead in the races for governor and Senate, tell me about this news today

Recent polling in Florida shows Republican candidates maintaining consistent advantages in the statewide races for both governor and the U.S. Senate.

Governor’s Race In the open-seat contest to succeed term-limited Ron DeSantis, Republican nominee Byron Donalds leads Democratic challenger David Jolly across major surveys. Recent public pollingincluding surveys from Mason-Dixon and academic pollsters like Stetson Universityplaces Donalds ahead by margins ranging from 7 to 12 percentage points, driven by solid party consolidation and strong support across rural and suburban pockets of the state.

Florida Politics

U.S. Senate Race In the Senate contest, Republican nominee Ashley Moody holds a double-digit lead over Democratic nominee Angie Nixon. Polls place Moody ahead by approximately 10 to 11 percentage points, benefiting from high name recognition and broad alignment with statewide conservative turnout models.

Stetson University

Key Takeaways

• Red-Shift Reinforcement: Florida continues to move further from its historical swing-state status, backed by an expanding Republican voter registration advantage that now exceeds several hundred thousand registered voters.

• Independent Voters: While Democratic candidates remain competitive among independent voters in select metropolitan areas, the split has not been wide enough to offset the Republican baseline.

• Turnout Dynamics: Analysts note that while some models show tighter races depending on demographic assumptions, the broad polling consensus reflects structural advantages for Republicans heading into the general election.