winter 2026 2027 snowfall forecast: trending now

Winter 2026–2027 Snowfall Forecast: Trends, Climate Drivers, and Regional Outlook

The winter 2026–2027 snowfall forecast is dominated by a strengthening El Niño pattern across the equatorial Pacific, which is reshaping long-range weather models and seasonal precipitation trends across the Northern Hemisphere. With climate agenciesincluding NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centerconfirming elevated sea surface temperatures, this winter’s storm track deviates significantly from standard climatological averages.

Here is what long-range models, historical analogs, and meteorological indices indicate for the winter 2026–2027 snow season.

Primary Climate Driver: Active El Niño and the Subtropical Jet

A hallmark of a moderate-to-strong El Niño winter is an energized, moisture-rich subtropical jet stream running across the southern tier of North America, contrasted with a split or displaced polar jet stream to the north.

• Southern Storm Track: Deep low-pressure systems are favored across the southern and central United States, drawing abundant subtropical moisture.

• Milder Northern Boundary: A dominant ridge across northwestern North America typically traps Arctic air farther north, limiting sustained polar outbreaks across the northern United States and southern Canada.

• Stratospheric Polar Vortex: Early guidance alongside westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) trends suggests a relatively stable early-winter vortex, lowering the probability of widespread early Arctic blasts, though late-winter disruption remains a variable to watch.

  National Weather Service

Regional Snowfall Trends across North America

1. Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies

• Snowfall Trend: Below average

• Outlook: Consistent with strong El Niño patterns, milder-than-normal temperatures dominate the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and northern Idaho/Montana. While storms will pass through, higher freezing levels will likely tilt precipitation toward rain at lower elevations, compressing the peak snowpack to higher alpine peaks.

2. Sierra Nevada, Central & Southern Rockies, and Southwest

• Snowfall Trend: Near to above average

  The Old Farmer’s Almanac

• Outlook: California’s Sierra Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico stand to benefit from a southerly atmospheric river trajectory. High-elevation mountain resorts are favored to see frequent, heavy winter storms, creating a solid base for winter recreation.

3. Midwest, Upper Plains, and Great Lakes

• Snowfall Trend: Near to below average

  National Weather Service

• Outlook: Milder-than-average winter temperatures are favored across the Upper Mississippi River Valley, the Great Lakes basin, and the Northern Plains. Lake-effect snowfall may see sporadic intense bursts during brief cold shots, but seasonal cumulative accumulations are projected to finish below baseline averages due to warmer surface air.

  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (.gov)+ 1

4. Mid-Atlantic and Southern Plains

• Snowfall Trend: Equal chances to slightly above average (elevation-dependent)

  National Weather Service

• Outlook: An active southern storm corridor creates potential for heavy precipitation events across Texas, the Southern Plains, and into the Tennessee